Let's look at the hit points of low level 4E monsters again.

From a previous post, the hit points of some favorite generic low level monsters are:

Kobold: 24, 27, 36 (level 1-2)

Goblin: 25, 29, 31 (level 1-2)

Let's assume a level 1 player with an at-will power using a weapon which does d8 damage, and the player's primary combat stat has a mod of +4. Hence the damage the player does with each hit is d8+4. The minimum damage per hit is 5 and the maximum damage per hit is 12. The low and upper limits for total damage done by more than one hit is:

1 hit: 5 -> 12

2 hits: 10 -> 24

3 hits: 15 -> 36

4 hits: 20 -> 48

5 hits: 25 -> 60

6 hits: 30 -> 72

The generic kobold or goblin is dead at minimum after 2 or 3 hits, and definitely dead after more than 5 or 6 hits.

To make things more precise, one can examine the probability of the total damage killing a monster after a number of hits. Let's look at the goblin with 29 hit points, using an online dice calculator. The results are:

3 hits: prob(total damage >= 29) = 23.44%

4 hits: prob(total damage >= 29) = 88.01%

5 hits: prob(total damage >= 29) = 99.83%

At a slightly higher level, the hit points of some generic monsters are:

Orc: 46 (level 3)

Hobgoblin: 39, 47 (level 3)

Skeleton: 45 (level 3)

Lycanthrope: 48 (level 3)

Doppelganger: 45 (level 3)

For our player now at level 3 with the same at-will power with a weapon doing d8 damage, the primary combat stat mod is +4 and maybe the weapon is now magic with a +1 bonus to damage. The damage per hit is d8+5. The lower and upper limits for total damage for more than one hit are:

1 hit: 6 -> 13

2 hits: 12 -> 26

3 hits: 18 -> 39

4 hits: 24 -> 52

5 hits: 30 -> 65

6 hits: 36 -> 78

7 hits: 42 -> 91

8 hits: 48 -> 104

It requires a minimum of 3 or 4 hits to kill a generic level 3 or 4 monster, while they're definitely dead after 8 or more hits.

Doing the same exercise using the online dice calculator for a generic orc with 46 hit points, we get:

4 hits: prob(total damage >= 46) = 5.13%

5 hits: prob(total damage >= 46) = 64.77%

6 hits: prob(total damage >= 46) = 98.11%

At a slightly more higher level, the hit points of some generic monsters are:

Beetle: 88 (level 8)

Behemoth: 82 (level 7)

Boar: 85 (level 6)

Troglodyte: 69, 74, 93 (level 6-8)

Zombie: 71, 88 (level 6-8)

Spider: 80 (level 7)

Shadar-Kai: 77, 86 (level 7-8)

Satyr: 80, 86 (level 7-8)

Ogre: 91 (level 8)

Foulspawn: 86, 87 (level 8)

Succubus: 90 (level 9)

For our player now at level 8 with the same at-will power with a weapon doing d8 damage, the primary combat stat mod is +5 (+1 from enough stat increases) and maybe the weapon is now magic with a +2 bonus to damage. The damage per hit is d8+7. The lower and upper limits for total damage for each hit are:

1 hit: 8 -> 15

2 hits: 16 -> 30

3 hits: 24 -> 45

4 hits: 32 -> 60

5 hits: 40 -> 75

6 hits: 48 -> 90

7 hits: 56 -> 105

8 hits: 64 -> 120

9 hits: 72 -> 135

10 hits: 80 -> 150

11 hits: 88 -> 165

12 hits: 96 -> 180

It requires a minimum of 6 or 7 hits to kill a generic level 7 or 8 monster, while they're definitely dead after 12 or more hits.

Doing the same exercise using the online dice calculator for a generic stayr with 80 hit points, we get:

7 hits: prob(total damage >= 80) = 56.41%

8 hits: prob(total damage >= 80) = 97.38%

9 hits: prob(total damage >= 80) = 98.64%

As one can see from these calculations, the number of hits using only at-will powers with d8 damage (with assumptions from magic bonuses and stat increases), goes from 5 hits to kill level 1-2 monsters, to 6 hits to kill level 3-4 monsters, to 8 hits to kill level 7-8 monsters. (The number of hits are from the first greater than 95% probability of total damage killing a monster, from the online dice calculator).

With the players having more daily powers at higher levels, in principle it should reduce the number of hits it takes to kill such higher level monsters. These calculations will be the subject of a future post.